Esposito, Joseph J. 2004. "The Devil You Don't Know: The Unexpected Future of Open Access Publishing." First Monday 9(8).

Abstract

"With the advent of the Internet and online publishing, the notion has arisen that access to the worlds research publications could be made available to one and all for free, presumably by shifting the costs to other places in the value chain and disintermediating publishers, a circumstance called Open Access (OA) publishing. While there are many hopes embedded in this view (lower costs, wider access, etc.), it appears more likely that Open Access will come about not through a revolution in the world of legacy publishing, but through upstart media built with the innate characteristics of the Internet in mind. An unanticipated outcome of this situation will be that the overall cost of research publications will rise, though the costs will be borne by different players, primarily authors and their proxies."