Durand, Leticia, and Rosalva Landa. 2004. "Demographic Change and Commons Management: A Focus on Migration." The Common Property Resource Digest 69.

Abstract

"The 2002 World Population Prospects challenge some assumptions concerning human demography. For the first time in history, fertility rates in developing countries are expected to decrease below 2.1 children per woman in the future, and such deep reduction of fertility means we will see a faster aging population. The median age of the world population will increase from 10 years old to 37 in the next fifty years. The world population is currently growing, but projections are lower than before. The population expectation for year 2050 is now of 8.9 million people, which is 0.4 billion less than the one from year 2000. This reduction will result from the increasing projected deaths due to HIV infections and the lower fertility rates expected in the future. International migration will still be an important process."