Browsing by Author "Jager, Wander"

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Diffusion Dynamics in Small-World Networks with Heterogeneous Consumers
(2005) Delre, Sebastiano A.; Jager, Wander; Janssen, Marco A.
"Diffusions of new products and technologies through social networks can be formalized as spreading of infectious diseases. However, while epidemiological models describe infection in terms of transmissibility and susceptibility, we propose a diffusion model that explicitly includes consumer decision-making affected by social influences and word-of-mouth processes. In our computational model consumers' probability of adoption depends on the external marketing effort and on the internal influence that each consumer perceives in his/her personal social networks. Maintaining a given marketing effort and assuming its effect on the probability of adoption as linear, we can study how the speed of the diffusion depends on the network structure and on consumer heterogeneity. First, we show that the speed of diffusion changes with the degree of randomness in the network. The speed is low in regular networks, it increases in small-world networks and finally it becomes low again in random networks. Second, we show that heterogeneity helps the diffusion. Alteris paribus and varying the degree of heterogeneity in the population of agents results show that the more heterogeneous the population, the faster the speed of the diffusion. These results contribute to marketing strategies for the launch and the dissemination of new products and technologies."
Fashions, Habits and Changing Preferences: Simulation of Psychological Factors Affecting Market Dynamics
(2007) Janssen, Marco A.; Jager, Wander
"Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or few products, to markets with constant penetration of new and reintroduced products. This paper explores the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation model. The behavioural rules of the artificial consumers, the consumats, are based on a conceptual meta-theory from psychology. The artificial consumers have to choose each period between similar products. Products remain in the market as long as they maintain a minimum level of market share, else they will be replaced by a new product. Assuming a population of consumats with different preferences, and social networks, the model simulates adoption of new products for alternative assumptions on behavioural rules. Furthermore, the consequences of changing preferences and the size of social networks are explored. Results show that the behavioural rules that dominate the artificial consumer's decision making determine the resulting market dynamics, such as fashions, lock-in and unstable renewal. Results also show the importance of psychological variables like social networks, preferences and the need for identity to explain the dynamics of markets."
Simulating Market Dynamics: Interactions between Consumer Psychology and Social Networks
(2003) Janssen, Marco A.; Jager, Wander
"Markets can show different types of dynamics, from quiet markets dominated by one or a few products, to markets with continual penetration of new and reintroduced products. In a previous article we explored the dynamics of markets from a psychological perspective using a multi-agent simulation model. The main results indicated that the behavioral rules dominating the artificial consumer's decision making determine the resulting market dynamics, such as fashions, lock-in, and unstable renewal. Results also show the importance of psychological variables like social networks, preferences, and the need for identity to explain the dynamics of markets. In this article we extend this work in two directions. First, we will focus on a more systematic investigation of the effects of different network structures. The previous article was based on Watts and Strogatz's approach, which describes the small-world and clustering characteristics in networks. More recent research demonstrated that many large networks display a scale-free power-law distribution for node connectivity. In terms of market dynamics this may imply that a small proportion of consumers may have an exceptional influence on the consumptive behavior of others (hubs, or early adapters). We show that market dynamics is a self-organized property depending on the interaction between the agents' decision-making process (heuristics), the product characteristics (degree of satisfaction of unit of consumption, visibility), and the structure of interactions between agents (size of network and hubs in a social network)."
Stimulating Diffusion of Green Products: Co-evolution between Firms and Consumers
(2002) Janssen, Marco A.; Jager, Wander
"This paper presents a model-based analysis of the introduction of green products, which are products with low environmental impacts. Both consumers and firms are simulated as populations of agents who differ in their behavioral characteristics. Model experiments illustrate the influence of behavioral characteristics on the success of switching to green consumption. The model reproduces empirical observed stylized facts and shows the importance of social processing and status seeking in diffusion processes. The flexibility of firms to adapt to new technology is found to have an important influence on the type of consumers who change their consumption to green products in the early phase of the diffusion process."