Browsing by Author "Spies, Thomas A."

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Examining Fire-Prone Forest Landscapes as Coupled Human and Natural Systems
(2014) Spies, Thomas A.; White, Eric M.; Kline, Jeffret D.; Fischer, Paige A.; Ager, Alan; Bailey, John; Bolte, John; Koch, Jennifer; Platt, Emily; Olsen, Christine S.; Jacobs, Derric; Shindler, Bruce; Steen-Adams, Michelle M.; Hammer, Roger
"Fire-prone landscapes are not well studied as coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) and present many challenges for understanding and promoting adaptive behaviors and institutions. Here, we explore how heterogeneity, feedbacks, and external drivers in this type of natural hazard system can lead to complexity and can limit the development of more adaptive approaches to policy and management. Institutions and social networks can counter these limitations and promote adaptation. We also develop a conceptual model that includes a robust characterization of social subsystems for a fire-prone landscape in Oregon and describe how we are building an agent-based model to promote understanding of this social-ecological system. Our agent-based model, which incorporates existing ecological models of vegetation and fire and is based on empirical studies of landowner decision-making, will be used to explore alternative management and fire scenarios with land managers and various public entities. We expect that the development of CHANS frameworks and the application of a simulation model in a collaborative setting will facilitate the development of more effective policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes."
Sustaining Biodiversity in the Oregon Coast Range: Potential effects of Forest Policies in a Multi-ownership Province
(2007) McComb, Brenda C.; Spies, Thomas A.; Olsen, Keith A.
"To understand the potential effects of forest policies on sustaining biological diversity at broad scales, we used spatial simulation models to evaluate current and potential future habitat availability over 100 yr for three focal species: Pacific Fisher (Martes pennanti), Pileated Woodpecker (Dryocopus pileatus), and Warbling Vireo (Vireo gilvus). The habitats of these species represent a broad range of spatial scales and forest types. Area of habitat for fishers and Pileated Woodpeckers is predicted to increase over time under current forest land management policies. Habitat for Warbling Vireos is predicted to decline. These patterns are consistent with past analyses that predicted declines in diverse early successional forests and hardwood forests and increases in late-successional forests under current and two alternative policies. Land ownership influenced the spatial arrangement of habitat for all three focal species. Public lands subsidized habitat for wide-ranging species on adjacent private lands. A land use policy that required greater green tree retention on private lands seemed to result in modest increases in habitat quality over 100 yr for Pileated Woodpeckers. Thinning of plantations on federal lands had little effect on these focal species. Policy analyses such as these highlight incongruities between historic habitat patterns and contemporary spatial and temporal scales of habitat in managed landscapes. This information can be used to assess risks and inform the policy debates surrounding biodiversity conservation."