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Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology

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dc.contributor.author Anderson, Judith L. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2009-07-31T14:50:39Z
dc.date.available 2009-07-31T14:50:39Z
dc.date.issued 1998 en_US
dc.date.submitted 2008-09-02 en_US
dc.date.submitted 2008-09-02 en_US
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10535/2497
dc.description.abstract "Ecologists working in conservation and resource management are discovering the importance of using Bayesian analytic methods to deal explicitly with uncertainty in data analyses and decision making. However, Bayesian procedures require, as inputs and outputs, an idea that is problematic for the human brain: the probability of a hypothesis ('single-event probability'). I describe several cognitive concepts closely related to single-event probabilities, and discuss how their interchangeability in the human mind results in 'cognitive illusions,' apparent deficits in reasoning about uncertainty. Each cognitive illusion implies specific possible pitfalls for the use of single-event probabilities in ecology and resource management. I then discuss recent research in cognitive psychology showing that simple tactics of communication, suggested by an evolutionary perspective on human cognition, help people to process uncertain information more effectively as they read and talk about probabilities. In addition, I suggest that carefully considered standards for methodology and conventions for presentation may also make Bayesian analyses easier to understand." en_US
dc.subject cognitive science en_US
dc.subject Bayesian learning en_US
dc.subject uncertainty en_US
dc.title Embracing Uncertainty: The Interface of Bayesian Statistics and Cognitive Psychology en_US
dc.type Journal Article en_US
dc.type.published published en_US
dc.subject.sector Theory en_US
dc.identifier.citationjournal Ecology and Society en_US
dc.identifier.citationvolume 2 en_US
dc.identifier.citationnumber 1 en_US
dc.identifier.citationmonth June en_US

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