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Wild Bird Movements and Avian Influenza Risk Mapping in Southern Africa

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dc.contributor.author Cumming, Graeme S. en_US
dc.contributor.author Hockey, Philip A. R. en_US
dc.contributor.author Bruinzeel, Leo W. en_US
dc.contributor.author Du Plessis, Morne A. en_US
dc.date.accessioned 2009-07-31T14:55:54Z
dc.date.available 2009-07-31T14:55:54Z
dc.date.issued 2008 en_US
dc.date.submitted 2009-02-05 en_US
dc.date.submitted 2009-02-05 en_US
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10535/2982
dc.description.abstract "Global analyses of the potential for avian influenza transmission by wild birds have ignored key characteristics of the southern African avifauna. Although southern Africa hosts a variety of migratory, Holarctic-breeding wading birds and shorebirds, the documented prevalence of avian influenza in these species is low. The primary natural carriers of influenza viruses in the northern hemisphere are the anatids, i.e., ducks. In contrast to Palearctic-breeding species, most southern African anatids do not undertake predictable annual migrations and do not follow migratory flyways. Here we present a simple, spatially explicit risk analysis for avian influenza transmission by wild ducks in southern Africa. We developed a risk value for each of 16 southern African anatid species and summed risk estimates at a quarter-degree cell resolution for the entire subregion using data from the Southern African Bird Atlas. We then quantified environmental risks for South Africa at the same resolution. Combining these two risk values produced a simple risk map for avian influenza in South Africa, based on the best currently available data. The areas with the highest risk values were those near the two largest cities, Johannesburg and Cape Town, although parts of Kwazulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape also had high-risk scores. Our approach is simple, but has the virtue that it could be readily applied in other relatively low-data areas in which similar assessments are needed; and it provides a first quantitative assessment for decision makers in the subregion." en_US
dc.subject birds en_US
dc.subject ducks en_US
dc.subject landscape change en_US
dc.subject ecology en_US
dc.title Wild Bird Movements and Avian Influenza Risk Mapping in Southern Africa en_US
dc.type Journal Article en_US
dc.type.published published en_US
dc.coverage.region Africa en_US
dc.subject.sector Wildlife en_US
dc.identifier.citationjournal Ecology and Society en_US
dc.identifier.citationvolume 13 en_US
dc.identifier.citationnumber 2 en_US
dc.identifier.citationmonth January en_US

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