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Forecasting Extinctions: Uncertainties and Limitations

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Type: Journal Article
Author: Ladle, Richard J.
Journal: Diversity
Volume: 1
Page(s): 133-150
Date: 2009
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10535/6870
Sector: Social Organization
Subject(s): uncertainty
Abstract: "Extinction forecasting is one of the most important and challenging areas of conservation biology. Overestimates of extinction rates or the extinction risk of a particular species instigate accusations of hype and overblown conservation rhetoric. Conversely, underestimates may result in limited resources being allocated to other species/habitats perceived as being at greater risk. In this paper I review extinction models and identify the key sources of uncertainty for each. All reviewed methods which claim to estimate extinction probabilities have severe limitations, independent of if they are based on ecological theory or on rather subjective expert judgments."

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