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Parameterization and Uncertainty in Coupled Ecohydrological Models

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dc.contributor.author Arnold, S.
dc.contributor.author Attinger, S.
dc.contributor.author Frank, K.
dc.contributor.author Hildebrandt, A.
dc.date.accessioned 2011-01-27T19:21:52Z
dc.date.available 2011-01-27T19:21:52Z
dc.date.issued 2009 en_US
dc.identifier.uri https://hdl.handle.net/10535/6920
dc.description.abstract "In this paper we develop and apply a conceptual ecohydrological model to investigate the effects of model structure and parameter uncertainty on the prediction of vegetation structure and hydrological dynamics. The model is applied for a typical water limited riparian ecosystem along an ephemeral river: the middle section of the Kuiseb River in Namibia. We modelled this system by coupling an ecological model with a conceptual hydrological model. The hydrological model is storage based with stochastical forcing from the flood. The ecosystem is modelled with a population model, and represents three dominating riparian plant populations. In appreciation of uncertainty about population dynamics, we applied three model versions with increasing complexity. Population parameters were found by Latin Hypercube sampling of the parameter space and with the constraint that three species should coexist as observed. Two of the three models were able to reproduce the observed coexistence. However, both models relied on different coexistence mechanisms, and reacted differently to change of long term memory in the flood forcing. The coexistence requirement strongly constrained the parameter space for both successful models. Only very few parameter sets (0.5% of 150 000 samples) allowed for coexistence in a representative number of repeated simulations (at least 10 out of 100) and the success of the coexistence mechanism was controlled by the combination of population parameters. The average values of hydrologic variables like transpiration and depth to ground water were similar for both models, suggesting that they were mainly controlled by the applied hydrological model. The fluctuations of depth to groundwater and transpiration, however, differed significantly, suggesting that they were controlled by the applied ecological model and coexistence mechanisms. Our study emphasizes that uncertainty about ecosystem structure and intra-specific interactions influence the prediction of the hydrosystem." en_US
dc.language English en_US
dc.subject modeling en_US
dc.subject water management en_US
dc.subject uncertainty en_US
dc.title Parameterization and Uncertainty in Coupled Ecohydrological Models en_US
dc.type Journal Article en_US
dc.type.published published en_US
dc.type.methodology Modeling en_US
dc.coverage.region Africa en_US
dc.coverage.country Namibia en_US
dc.subject.sector Theory en_US
dc.subject.sector Water Resource & Irrigation en_US
dc.identifier.citationjournal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions en_US
dc.identifier.citationvolume 6 en_US
dc.identifier.citationpages 4155–4207 en_US

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