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Abstract:
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"Agricultural development and climate change will be two of the major stressors on the
Amazon natural-human system in the decades to come. Environmental licensing for rural properties is
being implemented in several states in the Brazilian Amazon with the goal of restoring forests in agricultural
landscapes and mediating the impacts of these stressors. This study presents an agent-based model of
ranching and land exchange, informs it with empirical results from social research in the Ji-Paraná River
Basin, Rondônia, Brazil, and investigates the social, economic, and environmental outcomes that can be
expected as a result of environmental licensing in the context of climate change. Model results informed
by these data suggest that although an environmental licensing scheme with monitoring and enforcement
may increase the level of forested land in ranching landscapes, it may do so at the expense of the small
producer. To the extent that effective monitoring and enforcement exist, a focus on larger holdings will
help to mediate this negative social impact. These results suggest that a middle ground can be found in
cases where current environmental goals conflict with legacies of past colonization and resource-use regimes."
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