Sustaining Mangrove Forests to Reduce Vulnerability of Coastal Villages from Climate Change

Abstract

"Mangrove forests provide a range of welfare enhancing services to humans, but they also provide life support during calamities like tropical storms by reducing the probability of death. The coastal regions of India face a maximum threat from tropical cyclones due to climate change as these areas are situated at the coast of one of the core areas of cyclogenesis, namely, the Bay of Bengal. Studies on vulnerability indexing of these areas to cyclone and storm surge risks have identified Kendrapada district of East Coast of India to be either the most or the second most vulnerable district of the country. We study the 262 villages lying within a 10 km distance from the coast of the Kendrapada district and compare the relative vulnerability of these villages by estimating the village wise probability of facing human fatality due to severe storms. We calculate such probability from a cyclone impact (human deaths) function where a wide range of factors including natural ecosystems like presence of mangrove forest are used to control for the exposure and adaptive capacity of the villages. Presence or absence of mangroves comes out as an important factor impacting vulnerability. Villages established after clearing the forest in mangrove habitat areas and those with more marginal workers are found to face a very high death risk and villages situated in the leeward side of existing mangrove forest are seen to be facing a much lower risk of deaths. The results have important implications for conservation of mangrove forests in cyclone prone areas and also in the design of development policies for villages established in the mangrove habitat."