Projected Economic Impacts and Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change in Multi-County Regions of the Midwest

Abstract

"The nature and magnitude of regional economic-environmental-energy demand impacts and economic development effects of global climate change on rural have not been adequately explored. The purpose of this paper is to begin to address this problem by delineating these impacts for a four-county rural, recreation-based region. The most appropriate methodology for detecting the potential regional economic impacts of climate change is an integrated model designed to capture the explicit interdependencies and dynamic feedbacks between climate and other environmental changes in multiple economic sectors. A simultaneous equation, econometric modeling approach fulfills these requirements. The authors are presently engaged in the development, testing, and application of a integrated economic-environmental-energy demand model which translates regional climate-change effects on natural resources into impacts on economic activity. The Pere Marquette Watershed in Central Western Michigan was chosen as an initial testing ground for this model. The structure of the model, along with climate change forecast results. These results represent a significant expansion of the state-of-knowledge of regional economic-environmental-energy demand interactions associated with global climate change; a delineation of the specific impacts of global climate change in multi-county regions; and an impact analysis modeling structure which can be further developed, refined, and cost-effectively implemented in future research on other regions. "