Forecasting Areas Vulnerable to Forest Conversion in the Tam Dao National Park Region, Vietnam

Abstract

"Tam Dao National Park (TDNP) is a remaining primary forest that supports some of the highest levels of biodiversity in Vietnam. Forest conversion due to illegal logging and agricultural expansion is a major problem that is hampering biodiversity conservation efforts in the TDNP region. Yet, areas vulnerable to forest conversion are unknown. In this paper, we predicted areas vulnerable to forest changes in the TDNP region using multi-temporal remote sensing data and a multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with a Markov chain model (MLPNN-M). The MLPNN-M model predicted increasing pressure in the remaining primary forest within the park as well as on the secondary forest in the surrounding areas. The primary forest is predicted to decrease from 18.03% in 2007 to 15.10% in 2014 and 12.66% in 2021. Our results can be used to prioritize locations for future biodiversity conservation and forest management efforts. The combined use of remote sensing and spatial modeling techniques provides an effective tool for monitoring the remaining forests in the TDNP region."