Simulating Institutional Dynamics in the Context of Water in Outback Australia

Abstract

"Water availability in outback Australia is event driven and flips often from a situation of scarcity to a temporary abundance. Informal institutions are often able to translate such dynamics in sustainable user rules. Policy interventions are mainly focused on changing access rules to avoid over use or inefficiencies. Ripple effects of such formal institutional changes can lead to unexpected unsustainable outcomes; outcomes that are often captured in the 'story' behind informal arrangements.

This paper analyses one case study on water access in outback Australia and translates field work results into an agent based model. In order to project ripple effects of institutional changes interventions in water access is assumed in an applied context. Core focus of the modelling exercise is the treatment of newcomers on a newly created trading scheme for water access rights. Simulations compare different options and how perceived risk of existing irrigators might change."