Modeling the Human Impact on Resource Systems

Abstract

"The paper argues that the biodiversity and sustainability measures characterizing an eco-system are determined by three sets of variable characteristics. One set is the geo-physical parameters circumscribing the local eco-systems and its development. The second set is the longterm trends in climate change and other external long distance impacts such as acid rain and other kinds of fallout. The third set is the human usage of the eco-system and its resources.

"Data must be collected on units permitting meaningful policy conclusions. It is argued that to get unbiased estimates of the size and direction of human impact on ecosystem characteristics data on all three types of causal variables are necessary and the model must include the appropriate interaction terms.

"The paper concludes with a plea for more long term projects, such as IFRI, collecting data on all factors affecting the status of an ecosystem."