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Conference Paper Modelling Potential Repetition of a Visit to Value Environmental Quality Change of a Single Site(2004) Avila-Foucat, Sophie; Eugenio-Martin, Juan L."The purpose of this paper is to find out how much visitors in Ventanilla, Oaxaca, Mexico value an environmental quality change. Ventanilla is a rural community using a coastal lagoon ecosystem service for ecotourism. In the region, land regime is communal and the main sources of income are agriculture and fishery. Direct or indirect effects are generated between activities during the production of goods. For instance, the effects on the incoming of tourists and visitors to the region given by an environmental quality change is motivated by an increase or decrease in the intensity of the production in other sectors, such as agriculture. The interest of this paper is to know the willingness to accept an environmental change in order to repeat a visit to Ventanilla. "Most common environmental valuation techniques employ contingent valuation or travel cost method. A drawback of these techniques is due to the lack of information that interviewees usually have about the site concerned in the study. This lack of knowledge becomes even more relevant when assessing changes in the current environmental quality of the site. Our paper proposes the use of an alternative contingent behavior model combined with experimental techniques. The methodology is focused on the potentiality that current visitors may repeat or not their visit in the future. "Within a microeconomic framework we show how willingness to pay or willingness to accept will be obtained with respect to environmental quality changes under our contingent behavior model. Furthermore we model the repetition of visits employing the well-known probit model. The three main attributes assessed in this model are the number of crocodiles, birds and the mangrove area. We conduct a survey on the site during Easter and Summer of 2003. Information concerning if visitors are willing to repeat the visit or not and acceptable or desirable changes in environmental quality to guarantee a repetition of the visit were collected. "From our model we obtain willingness to pay or accept for environmental quality changes, variations in probabilities of visiting the site after such changes and shift in total demand. The case study presents the results from the survey and the probit model. Changes on willingness to accept and total demand estimations are in process. Demand is divided into three components: a random component, conscious visitors (those who have previous information about the site, either via some research or via friends) and repeat visitors (those who have already experienced the site). Once we obtain the shift in demand we can associate the effect originated by the environmental quality change and the consequent effect on the incoming of tourists. This link is useful as a tool to assess land use alternative policies in common resources."Conference Paper Ecological Economic Modelling for Integrating Environmental Services in the Welfare of Commons: A Case Study in Tonameca Catchment, Oaxaca, Mexico(2004) Avila-Foucat, Sophie; Raffaelli, D.; Perrings, Charles"Environmental services had been recognized as an important part of social welfare. In particular, the socio-economic and ecological relevance of coastal regions and impacts are presented as the general framework, for proposing in Tonameca catchment, an ecological economic model, for integrating environmental services in the welfare of commons. Tonameca watershed has 90% of common property land where agriculture and ecotourism are the main economic activities, as well as fisheries. Living conditions improvement depend on the maximization of profits from the previous activities without impairing the environment. An ecological economic model is proposed and described as a method for integrating environmental goods and services, in the production function of economic activities, in order to improve living conditions of the commons in Tonameca catchment. Ecological and economic diagnosis is followed by an optimization of socioeconomic profits. "Ecosystem diagnosis considers land use changes, water availability and quality as well as, an analysis of mangrove food web interactions using ECOPATH software. Fertilizer run-off and the effects on mangrove and phytoplankton biomass methods are presented. Results derived form the previous analysis provide the information for restricting the economic production function of ecotourism, agriculture and fisheries. An optimization of profits for each activity will be carried on in order to establish management recommendations. Ecotourism is presented as an example of environmental services used by Ventanilla community. Sustainable indicators are presented highlighting the benefits of creating a cooperative as a form of common property rights. Environmental deterioration causes changes on demand and on the cooperative profits showing the value of ecosystem services and the importance of their conservation."