Image Database Export Citations


Fishery Management: The Consequences of Honest Mistakes in a Stochastic Environment

Show full item record

Type: Working Paper
Author: Conrad, Jon M.; Lopez, Andres; Bjorndal, Trond
Date: 1988
Agency: Department of Agricultural, Resource, and Managerial Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY
Series: Working Paper Series in Environmental & Resource Economics, ERE 98-02
URI: https://hdl.handle.net/10535/4091
Sector: Fisheries
Region: Europe
Subject(s): fisheries
resource management
Abstract: "A recent article by Lauck et al. (1998) questions our ability to manage marine fisheries in the face of "persistent and irreducible scientific uncertainty." This paper examines the role that a safe minimum biomass level (SMBL) might play when stochastic recruitment is compounded by unbiased (honest) observation error. Specifically, a bioeconomic optimum is combined with a 5MBL to formulate a linear, total allowable catch (TAC) policy. In a deterministic world such a policy may asymptotically guide an overfished stock to the optimum. In a stochastiC model, the TAC policy will result in a distribution of stock and harvest about the bioeconomic optimum. The approach is applied to the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, a once abundant and highly migratory species in the northeast Atlantic. The effectiveness of the proposed 5MBL for spring-spawning herring is examined with stochastic recruitment, and observation error. Observation error greatly increases the coefficient of variation for harvest, and may allow the stock to (unknowingly) fall below the 5MBL."

Files in this item

Files Size Format View
Cornell_AEM_wp9811.pdf 1.203Mb PDF View/Open

This item appears in the following document type(s)

Show full item record