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PDF
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Type:
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Journal Article |
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Author:
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Costa, María A. Máñez; Moors, Eddy J.; Fraser, Evan D.G. |
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Journal:
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Ecology and Society |
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Volume:
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16 |
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Page(s):
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Date:
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2011 |
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URI:
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https://hdl.handle.net/10535/7561
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Sector:
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General & Multiple Resources |
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Region:
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Europe |
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Subject(s):
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climate change
drought
modeling
vulnerability
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Abstract:
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"Although climate change models project that communities in southern Europe may be
exposed to increasing drought in coming years, relatively little is known about how socioeconomic factors
will exacerbate or reduce this problem. We assess how socioeconomic and policy changes have affected
drought vulnerability in the Alentejo region of southern Portugal, where EU agricultural policy and the
construction of a major dam have resulted in a shift from a land-extensive mixed agricultural system to the
intensive production of irrigated grapes and olives. Following a dynamic systems approach, we use both
published socioeconomic data and stakeholder interviews to present a narrative account of how this
transition has increased the regions vulnerability to drought. To explore the assumptions made in the
narrative, and to present different possible future scenarios, we create a dynamic systems model, the results
of which suggest that socioeconomic drivers will play a more important role than projected rainfall changes
in increasing vulnerability in the future."
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