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Abstract:
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"The content, structure, and distribution of mental models can be elicited and measured using
a variety of methods. In this article we explore a method for eliciting mental models within the context of
water use and management in South Africa. This method is consensus analysis, a technique developed in
cognitive anthropology. We used it to analyze qualitative data from semistructured interviews, pilesorts,
and questionnaires to test quantitatively the degree of sharing and diversity of mental models within and
across social groups. The consensus analysis method focused on comparing the mental models of two key
stakeholder groups in the Crocodile River catchment in South Africa, i.e., conservationists and irrigators,
to better understand the level of consensus between these groups. We specifically investigated the level of
agreement regarding: (1) major water users of the Crocodile River, (2) causes of the current problems with
flows in the river, (3) consequences of the river not flowing, and 4) priorities for future use. We discuss
the results and examine the strengths and challenges of consensus analysis for eliciting and measuring
mental models. We also evaluated the usefulness of this method in assisting natural resource managers to
identify strategies for improving integrated management of water resources."
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